What Was Optimal? Looking Back on 10 Weeks of C.H.A.D. Picks

I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how the weekly C.H.A.D. picks look when compared using the Pinny closing ML and how popular each team was. So, this is that.

Worth noting that because of the double-elimination format of the preseason, the standard SR/popularity EV calculation doesn't really hold. So I definitely did some #makingshitup to attempt to account for this, which definitely isn't perfect, but #whocares.

At least I removed the vig from the Pinny lines? Anyway, here goes, and please stick around until (or just scroll straight to) the bottom for a possible C.H.A.D. 2014 idea.

 

The Colts ended up being the best pick here (that was me!), but I think that was mostly because they got bet a bunch after the pick submission deadline. The Browns' absurd popularity hurts them, and the Jags were an underdog so that probably wasn't advisable, but at least @alexrolfe wasn't giving up much future value!

Checking In On C.H.A.D. (X2)

Bumper sticker winners (Pt. 1): @kunk7 (TEN, STL), @ari_bets (TB, STL).

Square picks both weeks (CLE, CHI), so 2-0, obviously: @blakezurbuchen, @calebseeley, @danhodes, @itsasham, @jimsebow, @jppyramid.

Barely made the pick deadline in X1 + Picked an underdog in X2 = Zero strikes: @degenchat (CLE, IND).

Entrants who have made it to 2-0 without taking the most popular team in either X1 or X2: None.

Hasn't tweeted in awhile, missed the X2 deadline, and the default pick lost by 30. Is hopefully alive: @uug9 (CLE, DEN).

Doesn't really care that much yet because he's just going to keep re-buying until the regular season starts: @vegaswatch (IND, ARI).

Dark horse: @wackabrew (CLE, ARI).