C.H.A.D. W10 Recap

THEY DID IT:

Our dumb little contest even ended with justice:

So, @_Spraguer ends up shipping with what was probably the best pick in C.H.A.D. history, and it's a Jags win that seals the deal? Yeah, that works.

The current value of an entry is $2,865. Which breaks down to about $2,750 in cash, plus a large check that needs to be designed. Have at it, folks.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

JAGSSSSSSSSSS FOREVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
— J. Wheatley-Schaller (@vegaswatch) November 10, 2013

C.H.A.D. Gmail Thread of the Week

 

C.H.A.D. W9 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Math:

Always interesting when there's one very obvious "square" pick in normal pools, which everybody has available in C.H.A.D. Taking the Cowboys worked out for half the remaining entrants this time, both EV- and results-wise. I think the Saints were pretty solid as well but, unfortunately for @Ari_bets, Drew and Geno had other ideas.

And just like that, we're down to five, with an average value of $573. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@WagerMinds Touts, however, ARE magical wizards. Typically obese, they love to shout, and talk about "plays of the year" while drooling.
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) November 4, 2013

C.H.A.D. W8 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Not much to see here. Buffalo made it interesting for a bit. Jacksonville did not.

Math:

No surprise that the Saints were the strongest pick, given that @cajuncooks was the only one to take them. C.H.A.D. isn't played in a spreadsheet though (at least not this year!), so everybody moves on to Week 9.

The average value of an entry remains $478. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@redarmi123 I'm not surprised. Betting is a meritocracy - betting "commentary" is whatever the opposite of a meritocracy is.
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) October 23, 2013

What Was Optimal? Looking Back on 10 Weeks of C.H.A.D. Picks

I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how the weekly C.H.A.D. picks look when compared using the Pinny closing ML and how popular each team was. So, this is that.

Worth noting that because of the double-elimination format of the preseason, the standard SR/popularity EV calculation doesn't really hold. So I definitely did some #makingshitup to attempt to account for this, which definitely isn't perfect, but #whocares.

At least I removed the vig from the Pinny lines? Anyway, here goes, and please stick around until (or just scroll straight to) the bottom for a possible C.H.A.D. 2014 idea.

 

The Colts ended up being the best pick here (that was me!), but I think that was mostly because they got bet a bunch after the pick submission deadline. The Browns' absurd popularity hurts them, and the Jags were an underdog so that probably wasn't advisable, but at least @alexrolfe wasn't giving up much future value!

C.H.A.D. W7 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

And we're down to six, as @rolub was done in by a Ryan Tannehill sack-fumble.

The average value of an entry is up to $478. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

watched a child walk by with a half point parlay card. this is what the terrorists are trying to destroy IMO
— beruitplayer, esq. (@beruitplayer) October 12, 2013

C.H.A.D. W6 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Everybody won. The average value of an entry is still $409. Full pick summary is here. Go Jags.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@jasonrmcintyre gut says if you bet all 3 of them you go 2-1 at worst...would feel more comfortable backing Tampa at +3 in this spot
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) October 10, 2013

C.H.A.D. W5 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Boring week thus far, although we'll see how Geno Madness goes tonight. GENO MADNESS. Seems like the Rams were the way to go this week. Jags tho.

Full pick summary is here. With only seven entries left, the average value is up to $409.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@vegaswatch Bengals sure were a terrible survivor pick, huh?
— Michael Beller (@MBeller) October 6, 2013

C.H.A.D. W4 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Only elimination in Week 4 was @cfargis, who submitted the Colts after already having taken Indianapolis in Week 1. Without having done the math, it seems like Indy was the best pick this week.

Full pick summary is here.With 11 entries left, the average value is up to $260.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

.@FO_ASchatz can you explain why TB has a higher p(win) than NO this week?
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) September 26, 2013

C.H.A.D. W3 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Down go @wackabrew and @matt_matros, through no fault of their own, really. A somewhat different story for @degenchat, who becomes the first person to fail to submit a regular season pick.

All 14 submitted picks this week seemed pretty reasonable. Also, congrats to @cfargis, who hasn't won anything yet but is the only person with a perfect entry thus far, which gives him the tiebreaker over all other live entries.

Full pick summary is here.With 12 entries left, the average value is up to $239.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week
 

@vegaswatch so wanted to save Seattle and can't root against raiders on mnf on a scale of 1 being bad 10 being good how bad of a pick was no
— JPeasy (@jppyramid) September 22, 2013

C.H.A.D. W2 Recap

Only one loss this week, the blog pick of course:

Everybody's picks can be seen here.

So we say goodbye to @ItsASham and @srdmat2, while @wackabrew and @rolub need the Bengals on Monday night. Not sure, but I think the Pats probably ended up being the best C.H.A.D. pick this week, since they were so much less popular than in "normal" (less #shrap?) pools.

Down to 15 remaining entries, which puts the value of each entry at $191.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@ItsASham @ViewFromVegas The ViewFromVegas is that you're a HackInVegas who should jump off a BuildingInVegas
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) September 13, 2013

C.H.A.D. Tiebreaker Standings

Here are the tiebreaker standings (as described in the rules) for the 17 remaining entries:

In the rules, there's a fourth tiebreaker (point differential), but that kind of seems unnecessary. I'd say that if people with the same "TB Order" rank in the above standings end up tying, they should just split the pot. Let me know if there are any issues with that, and if not I'll change the rules before W2.

C.H.A.D. W1 Recap

Only one relevant team lost, but it was a significant one:

Given where all the consensus numbers ended up, the Colts were a pretty strong pick. Bucs would have been solid as well if anybody went with them. Some rare justice with the Steelers losing, as they were a terrible pick with over a third of the pool taking them (and I can say this, since I was part of the problem).

Everybody's picks can be seen here. We're down to 17 entries, which means the average entry is worth $159. I realize this post is quite late, but I did post the pick summary on Twitter just after noon. Sundays are chaos for me, so I think that's what I'll try to do every week, with a full post like this during FNIA.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

Got the Colts in #CHAD, but Raiders moneyline for oh let's just say several CHAD entry fees. Rooting for the Colts. #priorities
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) September 8, 2013

CHAD Tweet of the Week

Sharps liked Bal at +8.5/+9. Public leans Bal, still betting at +7/+7.5 RT @GoldenBoysInc: where are sharps/public in this Thrs Night tilt?
— chad millman (@chadmillman) September 5, 2013

Chad Tweet of the Week

Got an email from a #CHADCC possibility. He addresses me as Chad. #blessed #CHADCC4500
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) August 31, 2013

C.H.A.D. is All Grown Up

Quick recap: There are currently 26 live entries in C.H.A.D., and the winner-take-all prize pool is $2,865. Almost all of those entries have used four teams, while the three entries which started off the preseason at 3-0 have only used three. Not much to do for any of those 25 entries except ponder their W1 pick (details at bottom).

However, if you don't currently have a live entry in C.H.A.D., here's how you can remediate that:

RE-BUYS: The six entries which have been knocked out of C.H.A.D. can buy back in for $110. For those that got knocked out in X4, that's pretty much the whole story. If you got knocked out in X3, you can still buy back in, but you will be randomly assigned a team that you "used" in X4. These entries can re-buy until noon EST on Sunday, 9/8. After that there will be no re-buys (for anyone). Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

NEW ENTRIES: If you sat out the preseason, it's not too late! You can still join C.H.A.D. for $121. If you do that, you'll be randomly assigned four teams which you "used" throughout the preseason, and can't pick again. After that, it's a regular, single-elimination Survivor pool. C.H.A.D. is open for registration until noon EST on Sunday, 9/8. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

W1 PICKS: The pick deadline this week (and all future weeks) is noon EST on Sunday. If you'd like to pick a game that starts prior to that, you will need to submit that pick by kickoff of that game (so 8:30p EST for BAL/DEN). Nobody's picks will be revealed prior to noon Sunday. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. There are no default picks anymore; if you fail to submit a pick by the deadline, you're out.

A Quick C.H.A.D. Chart

Below is the amount of money each of the 26 current live entries have spent on C.H.A.D. entry fees to reach the regular season. So, if you're worried about the current entry fee, just remember, it could be worse!

C.H.A.D. X4 Update

And that, friends, will complete the preseason portion of C.H.A.D. Check out the updated X4 pick summary here. After four weeks of nonsense, we're left with:

• Three entries which started off 3-0, have only used three teams, and will have a leg up on everyone else in the tiebreaker from here on out.
• Sixteen entries which went 3-1, staying alive and putting them in the middle of the pack with respect to the tiebreaker.
• Six entries which have two or three losses, but bought back enough strikes to remain in the contest.
• Seven entries which have used up their strike allotment, but still have the opportunity to buy back in!

About that last part. At 25 live entries and a total prize pool of $2,755. the average value of an entry is currently $110. So those seven entrants have the ability to buy back in at that price. Newcomers are also still welcome until the regular season starts, although they'll be subject to the 10% premium, so the price for initial registration is now $121. I'll post more details on all this next week, but if you're interested in doing either of those things, please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com.

One final reminder: C.H.A.D. becomes a single-elimination pool at this point. Aside from the tiebreaker, all entries, new or otherwise, begin on equal footing next week.

C.H.A.D. X4 Pick Summary

First, the picks for one strike entries (so, the ones where people are actually trying to win):

Also quite a few entries which ended up buying back to zero strikes. Here are their picks:

It was quite a week for #teamREBUY. Five entries bought from two strikes to zero, two bought from two strikes to one, and a whopping seven entries bought from one strike to zero. All those details, plus all X4 picks, are here.

In the end, all that excitement brought us to 16 entries with zero strikes, 13 entries with one strike, and three entries which are currently out (but can buy back in next week!). The total prize pool is also all the way up to $2755.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week:

@vegaswatch Sometimes you eat the bear ... and sometimes the bear eats you.
— Kunk (@Kunk7) August 26, 2013

CHAD Tweet of the Week:

ICYMI, NFL gambling opus, previewing season for bettors. Who wiseguys love, who they hate, player rankings vs spread http://t.co/TFrwYHVKrq
— chad millman (@chadmillman) August 28, 2013

Chad Tweet of the Week:

#CHAD RT @Chad_BSD: heck yes the interview went awesome thank you for the encouragment you beautiful people
— Kunk (@Kunk7) August 27, 2013

C.H.A.D. X4 Live Chat

After tonight, everything changes.

Starting next week, everyone you know (everyone worth knowing?) will be in an NFL Survivor pool. It will be based on games that actually count, where the coaches care about winning, and the starters sometimes even play in the fourth quarter. You'll be in one of these as well; probably a few, since by virtue of your entry into C.H.A.D. we know you are serious about and dedicated to Survivor. These will be lots of fun -- and C.H.A.D. will continue, of course -- but it won't be the same.

But tonight. Tonight, there are 16 games in a six-hour span where the word "meaningless" gives them too much meaning. Tonight we get Dominique Davis playing the whole fucking game. Tonight we get "QB Harrell finally delivers for Packers in win". Tonight is C.H.A.D.'s shining moment.

 CLICK HERE FOR LIVE CHAT GO GO GO GO GO

Great Moments in C.H.A.D., Vol. 1

The Arizona Cardinals were easily the most popular pick of X3, selected by 15 of C.H.A.D.'s 32 entrants. Late in the second quarter, things were already not going very well, with the Cardinals trailing the Chargers 7-0. But it was about to get a lot worse:

With 36 seconds left in the first half, the Chargers were two yards out of the endzone and ran it up the gut with Ryan Mathews. The Cardinals were stout and he lost the ball as soon as he crashed into the line (Cardinals Good Thing No. 1). The ball bounced toward the sideline and it was quickly picked up by Cardinals safety Rashad Johnson (Cardinals Good Thing No. 2).

Then Johnson lateraled the ball to teammate Sam Acho (Cardinals Big Fuck-Up). With 30 seconds left. Inside his own seven-yard line. Acho lost the ball and the Chargers snatched it out of mid air and took it into the endzone (Chargers Good Thing No. 1).

You can see the full video here (very much worth watching). San Diego ended up winning 24-7, growing #teamREBUY by a yet to be determined number of members.

C.H.A.D. X3 Update

After three weeks, we're down to three entries which haven't lost yet: @jbxx21, @cfargis, and @wackabrew. So congrats to them for successfully navigating through the preseason; they now get to sit out next week.

There's one more strikeless entry (@Ari_bets), which does have to make a pick next week because he bought back in after losing the first two weeks. Eighteen entries have one strike, which leaves 10 entries that received their second (or third!) strike this weekend.

The current prize pool is $1735. The value of a zero-strike entry increased from $76 to $114; a one-strike entry is currently worth $71.

A full summary of all X3 picks can be found here.

RE-BUYS: Any of the 18 entries which have a strike will now be allowed to buy that strike back, for the price of $44. That strike sticks around for purposes of the (third) tiebreaker, but other than that you're back to having a clean entry. The entries which were already knocked out can either buy one strike back (for $71), or both (for $114). Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

LATE BUY-INS: C.H.A.D. remains open for new registration until the regular season starts. Given the fair value of a zero strike entry plus the 10% premium for late registration, buying into C.H.A.D. this week will cost $126. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in getting involved.

X4 PICKS: The pick deadline this week is Thursday at 7:00pm eastern. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. The default pick for X4 is Green Bay.

C.H.A.D. X3 Pick Summary

Picks for each entry can be found here. No new entries this week, but two re-buys: @Ari_bets bought two strikes back, and @Kunk7 bought one. That brings the total prize pool up to $1,735.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week:

@cajuncooks "I'm in a preseason survivor pool and I don't know who to pick and my son was shot last night but I don't know I like the Cards"
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) August 21, 2013

CHAD Tweet of the Week:

2 things 1. I just landed in Cleveland on way to SF 2. Browns have sharps attention RT @Lay110Junkie: break down Mia at Cle. i like Cle here
— chad millman (@chadmillman) August 20, 2013

 Chad Tweet of the Week:

#CHAD RT @mattufford: Watch out, Chad! RT @pourmecoffee: A map of the 22 countries Britain has not yet invaded pic.twitter.com/9a6Yl8jt8q
— Kunk (@Kunk7) August 19, 2013