Recapping C.H.A.D. Tres

Graded #porps:

The only one that seemed at all controversial was the Welker porp. I haven't seen a replay yet, but the one play in question (first play from scrimmage in 2H) didn't seem like a drop to me live, and Bodog graded "NO" as a winner, so I'm going with that. I'd put some more effort into it (maybe?), but it doesn't impact the eventual #chadTRES winner either way.

The Anthem (1:54) and Omaha (two!) unders crushed, but generally I think all these porps were reasonable, except for #teamWEATHER. And the forecast for the high on Sunday went from 37 to 46 the day after I posted these, so such is life. Everybody had the over, so it was just a matter of how many points you put on that particular #lock.

Anyway, here are the final standings:

Second by one point is always solid in a winner-take-all contest, IMO.

A truly impressive performance by @HidekiPatsui, who predicted each of his eight most confident porps correctly. Sounds like in real time he shipped the contest on this shot of Sad Eli, which is almost as appropriate a way to end the contest as the last relevant game in C.H.A.D. W10.

So, this was fun, and wraps up the 2013 C.H.A.D. football season. Go Jags.

C.H.A.D. DOS W15 Recap

No change, as @rolub and @alexrolfe made the same pick once again, and Carolina won by 10. So rolub keeps the EV tiebreaker heading into Week 16.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

.@BillSimmons if @RJinVegas were assigned a piece in the style of @kirkgoldsberry he would use MS Paint.
— Sham Supernova (@ItsASham) December 14, 2013

C.H.A.D. DOS W14 Recap

Both @rolub and @alexrolfe ended up taking the Chargers in Week 15, so C.H.A.D. DOS continues on. That distro would have really worked out for rolub if San Diego had lost, since he had (and continues to have) the EV tiebreaker.

But Eli didn't quite do it, so these two get to torture themselves for at least one more week.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

Boone Pickens has Billions....cannot hire me for 300k to make decisions a sharp 8th grader chould get right?
— Steve Fezzik (@FezzikSports) December 7, 2013

C.H.A.D. DOS W13 Recap

Good effort, Brandon:

The #bloodbath that is #chadDOS continues. The Bills didn't seem like that obvious of a pick to me, either:

The 49ers will be big faves against the Falcons in W16, but I think that was the best pick, even before it looked like we'd be on to #chadTRES by that point.

Three weeks into the contest, the only survivors are @alexrolfe and @rolub. The tiebreaker standings are rather important at this stage, so:

Some things to consider now that we're down to two:

• If both survivors pick the same team next week and that team loses, @rolub will be our winner. This fact will not be considered when calculating the EV of their picks for W14 and beyond, since that seems like double-counting.
• Picking a team that's in the hunt to win their division is less risky now, since the contest may be over by the time they clinch.
• Both survivors still have the two biggest W14 favorites remaining (DEN, NE), although obviously there are some potential issues there.

Full pick summary is here. The average value of an entry is up to $1,150.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

Good luck with that. pic.twitter.com/XUgR7Jdj8b
— Josh Gold-Smith (@GoldAndOrSmith) December 1, 2013

C.H.A.D. DOS W12 Recap

Good effort, Schaub:

 

Folks probably thought they were being pretty clever in selecting Baltimore, but second-order thinking won't get you very far in C.H.A.D. DOS:

At least the Ravens weren't the worst pick of the week! Lions and Packers were risky since somebody is going to have to win that division, and the 49ers still have quite a bit of future value. Seems like Arizona was solid.

Full pick summary is here.The average value of an entry is up to $230.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

Bullshit imo RT @MichelleDBeadle: Men who type 'smh,' 'lol,' 'rotfl,' or any other series of letters in a text and/or tweet should not breed
— ʞυиʞ™ (@Kunk7) November 21, 2013

C.H.A.D. DOS W11 Recap

Good effort, Schaub:

The full EV table is here. As for the W11 EV standings:

Tough to know which of these was the best pick overall, since the Eagles (@survivorgrid) and Bears (@briankgolden) are both still in the mix or winning their division, and the Texans still play the Jags twice. And then there are the Bills; I'm not sure that @ClevTA did the right thing there, but lol Jets.

Down to 30 entries remaining, with an average value of $77. The full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

@beruitplayer that's called a parlay
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) November 15, 2013

C.H.A.D. W10 Recap

THEY DID IT:

Our dumb little contest even ended with justice:

So, @_Spraguer ends up shipping with what was probably the best pick in C.H.A.D. history, and it's a Jags win that seals the deal? Yeah, that works.

The current value of an entry is $2,865. Which breaks down to about $2,750 in cash, plus a large check that needs to be designed. Have at it, folks.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

JAGSSSSSSSSSS FOREVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
— J. Wheatley-Schaller (@vegaswatch) November 10, 2013

C.H.A.D. Gmail Thread of the Week

 

C.H.A.D. W9 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Math:

Always interesting when there's one very obvious "square" pick in normal pools, which everybody has available in C.H.A.D. Taking the Cowboys worked out for half the remaining entrants this time, both EV- and results-wise. I think the Saints were pretty solid as well but, unfortunately for @Ari_bets, Drew and Geno had other ideas.

And just like that, we're down to five, with an average value of $573. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@WagerMinds Touts, however, ARE magical wizards. Typically obese, they love to shout, and talk about "plays of the year" while drooling.
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) November 4, 2013

C.H.A.D. W8 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Not much to see here. Buffalo made it interesting for a bit. Jacksonville did not.

Math:

No surprise that the Saints were the strongest pick, given that @cajuncooks was the only one to take them. C.H.A.D. isn't played in a spreadsheet though (at least not this year!), so everybody moves on to Week 9.

The average value of an entry remains $478. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@redarmi123 I'm not surprised. Betting is a meritocracy - betting "commentary" is whatever the opposite of a meritocracy is.
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) October 23, 2013

C.H.A.D. W7 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

And we're down to six, as @rolub was done in by a Ryan Tannehill sack-fumble.

The average value of an entry is up to $478. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

watched a child walk by with a half point parlay card. this is what the terrorists are trying to destroy IMO
— beruitplayer, esq. (@beruitplayer) October 12, 2013

C.H.A.D. W6 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Everybody won. The average value of an entry is still $409. Full pick summary is here. Go Jags.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@jasonrmcintyre gut says if you bet all 3 of them you go 2-1 at worst...would feel more comfortable backing Tampa at +3 in this spot
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) October 10, 2013

C.H.A.D. W5 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Boring week thus far, although we'll see how Geno Madness goes tonight. GENO MADNESS. Seems like the Rams were the way to go this week. Jags tho.

Full pick summary is here. With only seven entries left, the average value is up to $409.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@vegaswatch Bengals sure were a terrible survivor pick, huh?
— Michael Beller (@MBeller) October 6, 2013

C.H.A.D. W4 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Only elimination in Week 4 was @cfargis, who submitted the Colts after already having taken Indianapolis in Week 1. Without having done the math, it seems like Indy was the best pick this week.

Full pick summary is here.With 11 entries left, the average value is up to $260.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

.@FO_ASchatz can you explain why TB has a higher p(win) than NO this week?
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) September 26, 2013

C.H.A.D. W3 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Down go @wackabrew and @matt_matros, through no fault of their own, really. A somewhat different story for @degenchat, who becomes the first person to fail to submit a regular season pick.

All 14 submitted picks this week seemed pretty reasonable. Also, congrats to @cfargis, who hasn't won anything yet but is the only person with a perfect entry thus far, which gives him the tiebreaker over all other live entries.

Full pick summary is here.With 12 entries left, the average value is up to $239.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week
 

@vegaswatch so wanted to save Seattle and can't root against raiders on mnf on a scale of 1 being bad 10 being good how bad of a pick was no
— JPeasy (@jppyramid) September 22, 2013

C.H.A.D. W2 Recap

Only one loss this week, the blog pick of course:

Everybody's picks can be seen here.

So we say goodbye to @ItsASham and @srdmat2, while @wackabrew and @rolub need the Bengals on Monday night. Not sure, but I think the Pats probably ended up being the best C.H.A.D. pick this week, since they were so much less popular than in "normal" (less #shrap?) pools.

Down to 15 remaining entries, which puts the value of each entry at $191.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@ItsASham @ViewFromVegas The ViewFromVegas is that you're a HackInVegas who should jump off a BuildingInVegas
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) September 13, 2013

C.H.A.D. W1 Recap

Only one relevant team lost, but it was a significant one:

Given where all the consensus numbers ended up, the Colts were a pretty strong pick. Bucs would have been solid as well if anybody went with them. Some rare justice with the Steelers losing, as they were a terrible pick with over a third of the pool taking them (and I can say this, since I was part of the problem).

Everybody's picks can be seen here. We're down to 17 entries, which means the average entry is worth $159. I realize this post is quite late, but I did post the pick summary on Twitter just after noon. Sundays are chaos for me, so I think that's what I'll try to do every week, with a full post like this during FNIA.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

Got the Colts in #CHAD, but Raiders moneyline for oh let's just say several CHAD entry fees. Rooting for the Colts. #priorities
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) September 8, 2013

CHAD Tweet of the Week

Sharps liked Bal at +8.5/+9. Public leans Bal, still betting at +7/+7.5 RT @GoldenBoysInc: where are sharps/public in this Thrs Night tilt?
— chad millman (@chadmillman) September 5, 2013

Chad Tweet of the Week

Got an email from a #CHADCC possibility. He addresses me as Chad. #blessed #CHADCC4500
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) August 31, 2013

C.H.A.D. is All Grown Up

Quick recap: There are currently 26 live entries in C.H.A.D., and the winner-take-all prize pool is $2,865. Almost all of those entries have used four teams, while the three entries which started off the preseason at 3-0 have only used three. Not much to do for any of those 25 entries except ponder their W1 pick (details at bottom).

However, if you don't currently have a live entry in C.H.A.D., here's how you can remediate that:

RE-BUYS: The six entries which have been knocked out of C.H.A.D. can buy back in for $110. For those that got knocked out in X4, that's pretty much the whole story. If you got knocked out in X3, you can still buy back in, but you will be randomly assigned a team that you "used" in X4. These entries can re-buy until noon EST on Sunday, 9/8. After that there will be no re-buys (for anyone). Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

NEW ENTRIES: If you sat out the preseason, it's not too late! You can still join C.H.A.D. for $121. If you do that, you'll be randomly assigned four teams which you "used" throughout the preseason, and can't pick again. After that, it's a regular, single-elimination Survivor pool. C.H.A.D. is open for registration until noon EST on Sunday, 9/8. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

W1 PICKS: The pick deadline this week (and all future weeks) is noon EST on Sunday. If you'd like to pick a game that starts prior to that, you will need to submit that pick by kickoff of that game (so 8:30p EST for BAL/DEN). Nobody's picks will be revealed prior to noon Sunday. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. There are no default picks anymore; if you fail to submit a pick by the deadline, you're out.

C.H.A.D. X4 Update

And that, friends, will complete the preseason portion of C.H.A.D. Check out the updated X4 pick summary here. After four weeks of nonsense, we're left with:

• Three entries which started off 3-0, have only used three teams, and will have a leg up on everyone else in the tiebreaker from here on out.
• Sixteen entries which went 3-1, staying alive and putting them in the middle of the pack with respect to the tiebreaker.
• Six entries which have two or three losses, but bought back enough strikes to remain in the contest.
• Seven entries which have used up their strike allotment, but still have the opportunity to buy back in!

About that last part. At 25 live entries and a total prize pool of $2,755. the average value of an entry is currently $110. So those seven entrants have the ability to buy back in at that price. Newcomers are also still welcome until the regular season starts, although they'll be subject to the 10% premium, so the price for initial registration is now $121. I'll post more details on all this next week, but if you're interested in doing either of those things, please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com.

One final reminder: C.H.A.D. becomes a single-elimination pool at this point. Aside from the tiebreaker, all entries, new or otherwise, begin on equal footing next week.

C.H.A.D. X3 Update

After three weeks, we're down to three entries which haven't lost yet: @jbxx21, @cfargis, and @wackabrew. So congrats to them for successfully navigating through the preseason; they now get to sit out next week.

There's one more strikeless entry (@Ari_bets), which does have to make a pick next week because he bought back in after losing the first two weeks. Eighteen entries have one strike, which leaves 10 entries that received their second (or third!) strike this weekend.

The current prize pool is $1735. The value of a zero-strike entry increased from $76 to $114; a one-strike entry is currently worth $71.

A full summary of all X3 picks can be found here.

RE-BUYS: Any of the 18 entries which have a strike will now be allowed to buy that strike back, for the price of $44. That strike sticks around for purposes of the (third) tiebreaker, but other than that you're back to having a clean entry. The entries which were already knocked out can either buy one strike back (for $71), or both (for $114). Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

LATE BUY-INS: C.H.A.D. remains open for new registration until the regular season starts. Given the fair value of a zero strike entry plus the 10% premium for late registration, buying into C.H.A.D. this week will cost $126. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in getting involved.

X4 PICKS: The pick deadline this week is Thursday at 7:00pm eastern. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. The default pick for X4 is Green Bay.

C.H.A.D. X2 Update

After two weeks, we have 14 entries with zero strikes, and 16 entries with one strike. Which leaves two entries with two strikes; that would be @Kunk7 and @Ari_bets.

The current prize pool is $1620. The value of a zero-strike entry increased from $63 to $76; a one-strike entry is currently worth $34.

A full summary of all X2 picks can be found here.

RE-BUYS: Any of the 16 entries which have a strike will now be allowed to buy that strike back, for the price of $42. That strike sticks around for purposes of the (third) tiebreaker, but other than that you're back to having a clean entry. Also, the two entries which were already knocked out can buy either one strike back (for $34), or both (for $76). Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

LATE BUY-INS: C.H.A.D. remains open for new registration until the regular season starts. Given the fair value of a zero strike entry plus the 10% premium for late registration, buying into C.H.A.D. this week will cost $84. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in getting involved.

X3 PICKS: The pick deadline this week is once again on Thursday at 7:30pm eastern, as there is one game which kicks off at that time. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. The default pick for X3 is New England.