C.H.A.D. DOS W15 Recap

No change, as @rolub and @alexrolfe made the same pick once again, and Carolina won by 10. So rolub keeps the EV tiebreaker heading into Week 16.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

.@BillSimmons if @RJinVegas were assigned a piece in the style of @kirkgoldsberry he would use MS Paint.
— Sham Supernova (@ItsASham) December 14, 2013

C.H.A.D. DOS W14 Recap

Both @rolub and @alexrolfe ended up taking the Chargers in Week 15, so C.H.A.D. DOS continues on. That distro would have really worked out for rolub if San Diego had lost, since he had (and continues to have) the EV tiebreaker.

But Eli didn't quite do it, so these two get to torture themselves for at least one more week.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

Boone Pickens has Billions....cannot hire me for 300k to make decisions a sharp 8th grader chould get right?
— Steve Fezzik (@FezzikSports) December 7, 2013

C.H.A.D. DOS W13 Recap

Good effort, Brandon:

The #bloodbath that is #chadDOS continues. The Bills didn't seem like that obvious of a pick to me, either:

The 49ers will be big faves against the Falcons in W16, but I think that was the best pick, even before it looked like we'd be on to #chadTRES by that point.

Three weeks into the contest, the only survivors are @alexrolfe and @rolub. The tiebreaker standings are rather important at this stage, so:

Some things to consider now that we're down to two:

• If both survivors pick the same team next week and that team loses, @rolub will be our winner. This fact will not be considered when calculating the EV of their picks for W14 and beyond, since that seems like double-counting.
• Picking a team that's in the hunt to win their division is less risky now, since the contest may be over by the time they clinch.
• Both survivors still have the two biggest W14 favorites remaining (DEN, NE), although obviously there are some potential issues there.

Full pick summary is here. The average value of an entry is up to $1,150.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

Good luck with that. pic.twitter.com/XUgR7Jdj8b
— Josh Gold-Smith (@GoldAndOrSmith) December 1, 2013

C.H.A.D. DOS W12 Recap

Good effort, Schaub:

 

Folks probably thought they were being pretty clever in selecting Baltimore, but second-order thinking won't get you very far in C.H.A.D. DOS:

At least the Ravens weren't the worst pick of the week! Lions and Packers were risky since somebody is going to have to win that division, and the 49ers still have quite a bit of future value. Seems like Arizona was solid.

Full pick summary is here.The average value of an entry is up to $230.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

Bullshit imo RT @MichelleDBeadle: Men who type 'smh,' 'lol,' 'rotfl,' or any other series of letters in a text and/or tweet should not breed
— ʞυиʞ™ (@Kunk7) November 21, 2013

C.H.A.D. DOS W11 Recap

Good effort, Schaub:

The full EV table is here. As for the W11 EV standings:

Tough to know which of these was the best pick overall, since the Eagles (@survivorgrid) and Bears (@briankgolden) are both still in the mix or winning their division, and the Texans still play the Jags twice. And then there are the Bills; I'm not sure that @ClevTA did the right thing there, but lol Jets.

Down to 30 entries remaining, with an average value of $77. The full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. DOS Tweet of the Week

@beruitplayer that's called a parlay
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) November 15, 2013

Introducing C.H.A.D. DOS

$50 to enter, 100% of entry fees will go into prize pool. Each person can have up to two entries. No re-buys, if you haven't paid by noon on Sunday 11/17 then you're SOL.

Games are picked straight up, no spreads, ties are losses. No strikes; lose once and you're out.

Pool starts with Week 11 games (11/14-11/18). It will continue into the playoffs, all the way through the Super Bowl if necessary. The deadline will be noon eastern on Sunday, obviously if you want to pick a Thursday or Saturday game then you have to submit that pick prior to kickoff.

Each team can only be taken once, no exceptions.

THIS IS IMPORTANT: If, in Weeks 11-17, you used a team that ends up winning its division, you'll be eliminated from the pool the week that team clinches its division. If your pick wins that week, you will finish ahead of anyone whose pick lost that week, but behind anyone who advanced to the next week.

Pool is winner-take-all.

TIEBREAKERS: The tiebreaker will be the EV of your picks in Weeks 11-17, which will be calculated based on how popular the pick was, and the closing line at Pinnacle.

If you do not have any teams left to pick in any particular round of the playoffs, then you finish ahead of anyone that lost in the previous week, but behind anyone that can make a pick in the following week, regardless of whether that pick wins.

TO ENTER: Please send your payment of $50 (for one entry) or $100 (for two) via PayPal to vegaswatch AT gmail DOT com. Include your Twitter handle with the payment, that will be your entry name.

PICK SUBMISSION: Submit your picks, with your Twitter handle and the word "picks" in the subject, to cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com. For example, if you are the #WOAT, the subject would read "@thickslicing picks". You can send up to two pick submission emails per week (per entry), with the second one always overriding the first. This way, you can submit a "backup" pick earlier in the week, in case you forget or whatever. Any pick after the second email will be ignored, and likely mocked.

If you fail to submit a pick by the deadline, you lose.

C.H.A.D. W10 Recap

THEY DID IT:

Our dumb little contest even ended with justice:

So, @_Spraguer ends up shipping with what was probably the best pick in C.H.A.D. history, and it's a Jags win that seals the deal? Yeah, that works.

The current value of an entry is $2,865. Which breaks down to about $2,750 in cash, plus a large check that needs to be designed. Have at it, folks.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

JAGSSSSSSSSSS FOREVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
— J. Wheatley-Schaller (@vegaswatch) November 10, 2013

C.H.A.D. Gmail Thread of the Week

 

C.H.A.D. W9 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Math:

Always interesting when there's one very obvious "square" pick in normal pools, which everybody has available in C.H.A.D. Taking the Cowboys worked out for half the remaining entrants this time, both EV- and results-wise. I think the Saints were pretty solid as well but, unfortunately for @Ari_bets, Drew and Geno had other ideas.

And just like that, we're down to five, with an average value of $573. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@WagerMinds Touts, however, ARE magical wizards. Typically obese, they love to shout, and talk about "plays of the year" while drooling.
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) November 4, 2013

C.H.A.D. W8 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Not much to see here. Buffalo made it interesting for a bit. Jacksonville did not.

Math:

No surprise that the Saints were the strongest pick, given that @cajuncooks was the only one to take them. C.H.A.D. isn't played in a spreadsheet though (at least not this year!), so everybody moves on to Week 9.

The average value of an entry remains $478. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@redarmi123 I'm not surprised. Betting is a meritocracy - betting "commentary" is whatever the opposite of a meritocracy is.
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) October 23, 2013

What Was Optimal? Looking Back on 10 Weeks of C.H.A.D. Picks

I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how the weekly C.H.A.D. picks look when compared using the Pinny closing ML and how popular each team was. So, this is that.

Worth noting that because of the double-elimination format of the preseason, the standard SR/popularity EV calculation doesn't really hold. So I definitely did some #makingshitup to attempt to account for this, which definitely isn't perfect, but #whocares.

At least I removed the vig from the Pinny lines? Anyway, here goes, and please stick around until (or just scroll straight to) the bottom for a possible C.H.A.D. 2014 idea.

 

The Colts ended up being the best pick here (that was me!), but I think that was mostly because they got bet a bunch after the pick submission deadline. The Browns' absurd popularity hurts them, and the Jags were an underdog so that probably wasn't advisable, but at least @alexrolfe wasn't giving up much future value!

C.H.A.D. W7 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

And we're down to six, as @rolub was done in by a Ryan Tannehill sack-fumble.

The average value of an entry is up to $478. Full pick summary is here.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

watched a child walk by with a half point parlay card. this is what the terrorists are trying to destroy IMO
— beruitplayer, esq. (@beruitplayer) October 12, 2013

C.H.A.D. W6 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Everybody won. The average value of an entry is still $409. Full pick summary is here. Go Jags.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@jasonrmcintyre gut says if you bet all 3 of them you go 2-1 at worst...would feel more comfortable backing Tampa at +3 in this spot
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) October 10, 2013

#CHADCC Week 6 Summary / Week 7 Lines

#CHADCC Tweet of the Week: @vegaswatch "@thickslicing I'm in third!? Awesome."

Winner by default right there imo.

Weatherman takes first for now, after a week in which every single person did better than random chance, which is pretty ridiculous. Congratulations to @JBXX21 for winning the week, now onto the Luck Factor™

Weatherman picking at a 65% clip, probably should join PreGame.com and do videos with Brian "Beef Taters in a Browns Polo" Leonard and Steve "$90" Fezzik. 

Week 7 lines after the jump.

C.H.A.D. W5 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Boring week thus far, although we'll see how Geno Madness goes tonight. GENO MADNESS. Seems like the Rams were the way to go this week. Jags tho.

Full pick summary is here. With only seven entries left, the average value is up to $409.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@vegaswatch Bengals sure were a terrible survivor pick, huh?
— Michael Beller (@MBeller) October 6, 2013

CHADCC Week 5 Results / Week 6 Lines

Congrats to @NotThatTricky for the win in a very tight week, where 5.5 points separated 1st from 10th.

Luck Factor™:

Kunk and HODES really separating themselves from the rest of the pack, while Weatherman™ has bad luck while being thisclose to first place. 

Lines for Week 6 after the jump:

C.H.A.D. W4 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Only elimination in Week 4 was @cfargis, who submitted the Colts after already having taken Indianapolis in Week 1. Without having done the math, it seems like Indy was the best pick this week.

Full pick summary is here.With 11 entries left, the average value is up to $260.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

.@FO_ASchatz can you explain why TB has a higher p(win) than NO this week?
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) September 26, 2013

CHAD CC Week 4 Results/Week 5 Lines & LUCK FACTOR™

Here are the Week 4 Results:

@TheRealestDan wins the week and takes over the number one spot overall. Who cares, though, because we don't pay out weekly winners and it's only week 4. Congrats, tho?

On the other end of the spectrum is another Dan, HODES. He's first (last?) in another category, though: Luck Factor™. (!) This proprietary formula from someone who is twitter contemporaries with the guy who invented Safety Rating™ shows how lucky, or unlucky, our CHAD CC participants are, based on points scored and how many of their picks won. Of course, one could say that this just means that certain contestants aren't valuing their picks correctly, but, then again, one could say a lot of things.

Week 5 lines after the jump. 

C.H.A.D. W3 Recap

Good effort, Jags:

Down go @wackabrew and @matt_matros, through no fault of their own, really. A somewhat different story for @degenchat, who becomes the first person to fail to submit a regular season pick.

All 14 submitted picks this week seemed pretty reasonable. Also, congrats to @cfargis, who hasn't won anything yet but is the only person with a perfect entry thus far, which gives him the tiebreaker over all other live entries.

Full pick summary is here.With 12 entries left, the average value is up to $239.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week
 

@vegaswatch so wanted to save Seattle and can't root against raiders on mnf on a scale of 1 being bad 10 being good how bad of a pick was no
— JPeasy (@jppyramid) September 22, 2013

CHAD CC Week 3 Summary & Week 4 Lines

I sent out an email to the CHAD CC participants congratulating @NCPBO for his win this week. I had one job, so I guess that says a lot. Actual congratulations to KramerTM from 2+2, who really won the week. And a different type of congrats to @danhodes , who is #GRINDINGFORTHATTINYFUCKINGHELMET .

Week 4 lines after the break:

C.H.A.D. W2 Recap

Only one loss this week, the blog pick of course:

Everybody's picks can be seen here.

So we say goodbye to @ItsASham and @srdmat2, while @wackabrew and @rolub need the Bengals on Monday night. Not sure, but I think the Pats probably ended up being the best C.H.A.D. pick this week, since they were so much less popular than in "normal" (less #shrap?) pools.

Down to 15 remaining entries, which puts the value of each entry at $191.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

@ItsASham @ViewFromVegas The ViewFromVegas is that you're a HackInVegas who should jump off a BuildingInVegas
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) September 13, 2013

C.H.A.D. Tiebreaker Standings

Here are the tiebreaker standings (as described in the rules) for the 17 remaining entries:

In the rules, there's a fourth tiebreaker (point differential), but that kind of seems unnecessary. I'd say that if people with the same "TB Order" rank in the above standings end up tying, they should just split the pot. Let me know if there are any issues with that, and if not I'll change the rules before W2.

CHADCC Week 2 Results/Week 3 Lines

Week 1 Average Score: 33.5 points
Week 2 Average Score: 29.3 points

A little less nuts than last week, possibly because only 5 out of the top 9 selected teams covered. Sam Houston State might not sell mini-helmets, will definitely look into it.

Below the fold are the Week 3 lines. Picks due, as usual, by 10am EST on Saturday morning at cvillecollegepool@gmail.com

C.H.A.D. W1 Recap

Only one relevant team lost, but it was a significant one:

Given where all the consensus numbers ended up, the Colts were a pretty strong pick. Bucs would have been solid as well if anybody went with them. Some rare justice with the Steelers losing, as they were a terrible pick with over a third of the pool taking them (and I can say this, since I was part of the problem).

Everybody's picks can be seen here. We're down to 17 entries, which means the average entry is worth $159. I realize this post is quite late, but I did post the pick summary on Twitter just after noon. Sundays are chaos for me, so I think that's what I'll try to do every week, with a full post like this during FNIA.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week

Got the Colts in #CHAD, but Raiders moneyline for oh let's just say several CHAD entry fees. Rooting for the Colts. #priorities
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) September 8, 2013

CHAD Tweet of the Week

Sharps liked Bal at +8.5/+9. Public leans Bal, still betting at +7/+7.5 RT @GoldenBoysInc: where are sharps/public in this Thrs Night tilt?
— chad millman (@chadmillman) September 5, 2013

Chad Tweet of the Week

Got an email from a #CHADCC possibility. He addresses me as Chad. #blessed #CHADCC4500
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) August 31, 2013

CHAD CC Week 1 Results/Week 2 Lines

Here are the results of the first week of CHAD CC:

Given that the average entry should be at about 27.5 points per week before doing adjustments for stale lines, I'm pretty sure we outperformed expectations. Dan went 9 of 10, only losing his 10 point confidence game. We have a few members of the pool reaching out to the godfather, Chad Millman himself, to try to get a spot on the podcast. I have my doubts, though, since we didn't give him a free entry, or act like his finger is on the pulse of Vegas. Rice 1H, tho?

Below the fold are the Week 2 lines. Picks are due 10am EST Saturday morning at cvillecollegepool@gmail.com

C.H.A.D. is All Grown Up

Quick recap: There are currently 26 live entries in C.H.A.D., and the winner-take-all prize pool is $2,865. Almost all of those entries have used four teams, while the three entries which started off the preseason at 3-0 have only used three. Not much to do for any of those 25 entries except ponder their W1 pick (details at bottom).

However, if you don't currently have a live entry in C.H.A.D., here's how you can remediate that:

RE-BUYS: The six entries which have been knocked out of C.H.A.D. can buy back in for $110. For those that got knocked out in X4, that's pretty much the whole story. If you got knocked out in X3, you can still buy back in, but you will be randomly assigned a team that you "used" in X4. These entries can re-buy until noon EST on Sunday, 9/8. After that there will be no re-buys (for anyone). Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

NEW ENTRIES: If you sat out the preseason, it's not too late! You can still join C.H.A.D. for $121. If you do that, you'll be randomly assigned four teams which you "used" throughout the preseason, and can't pick again. After that, it's a regular, single-elimination Survivor pool. C.H.A.D. is open for registration until noon EST on Sunday, 9/8. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

W1 PICKS: The pick deadline this week (and all future weeks) is noon EST on Sunday. If you'd like to pick a game that starts prior to that, you will need to submit that pick by kickoff of that game (so 8:30p EST for BAL/DEN). Nobody's picks will be revealed prior to noon Sunday. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. There are no default picks anymore; if you fail to submit a pick by the deadline, you're out.

A Quick C.H.A.D. Chart

Below is the amount of money each of the 26 current live entries have spent on C.H.A.D. entry fees to reach the regular season. So, if you're worried about the current entry fee, just remember, it could be worse!

C.H.A.D. X4 Update

And that, friends, will complete the preseason portion of C.H.A.D. Check out the updated X4 pick summary here. After four weeks of nonsense, we're left with:

• Three entries which started off 3-0, have only used three teams, and will have a leg up on everyone else in the tiebreaker from here on out.
• Sixteen entries which went 3-1, staying alive and putting them in the middle of the pack with respect to the tiebreaker.
• Six entries which have two or three losses, but bought back enough strikes to remain in the contest.
• Seven entries which have used up their strike allotment, but still have the opportunity to buy back in!

About that last part. At 25 live entries and a total prize pool of $2,755. the average value of an entry is currently $110. So those seven entrants have the ability to buy back in at that price. Newcomers are also still welcome until the regular season starts, although they'll be subject to the 10% premium, so the price for initial registration is now $121. I'll post more details on all this next week, but if you're interested in doing either of those things, please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com.

One final reminder: C.H.A.D. becomes a single-elimination pool at this point. Aside from the tiebreaker, all entries, new or otherwise, begin on equal footing next week.

C.H.A.D. X4 Pick Summary

First, the picks for one strike entries (so, the ones where people are actually trying to win):

Also quite a few entries which ended up buying back to zero strikes. Here are their picks:

It was quite a week for #teamREBUY. Five entries bought from two strikes to zero, two bought from two strikes to one, and a whopping seven entries bought from one strike to zero. All those details, plus all X4 picks, are here.

In the end, all that excitement brought us to 16 entries with zero strikes, 13 entries with one strike, and three entries which are currently out (but can buy back in next week!). The total prize pool is also all the way up to $2755.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week:

@vegaswatch Sometimes you eat the bear ... and sometimes the bear eats you.
— Kunk (@Kunk7) August 26, 2013

CHAD Tweet of the Week:

ICYMI, NFL gambling opus, previewing season for bettors. Who wiseguys love, who they hate, player rankings vs spread http://t.co/TFrwYHVKrq
— chad millman (@chadmillman) August 28, 2013

Chad Tweet of the Week:

#CHAD RT @Chad_BSD: heck yes the interview went awesome thank you for the encouragment you beautiful people
— Kunk (@Kunk7) August 27, 2013

C.H.A.D. X4 Live Chat

After tonight, everything changes.

Starting next week, everyone you know (everyone worth knowing?) will be in an NFL Survivor pool. It will be based on games that actually count, where the coaches care about winning, and the starters sometimes even play in the fourth quarter. You'll be in one of these as well; probably a few, since by virtue of your entry into C.H.A.D. we know you are serious about and dedicated to Survivor. These will be lots of fun -- and C.H.A.D. will continue, of course -- but it won't be the same.

But tonight. Tonight, there are 16 games in a six-hour span where the word "meaningless" gives them too much meaning. Tonight we get Dominique Davis playing the whole fucking game. Tonight we get "QB Harrell finally delivers for Packers in win". Tonight is C.H.A.D.'s shining moment.

 CLICK HERE FOR LIVE CHAT GO GO GO GO GO

CHAD CC - Week 1

EDIT THE 2ND: 

If there was a college pre-season, this would be a College C.H.A.D.

Asked for names for the pool, immediately got "CHAD U", then "CHAD Community College", or "CHAD CC" for short. I'd like to thank the Mayor of #TeamRebuy, @Kunk7, for the brilliance.

Sadly, it's just a pick'em pool where you can hope Elon covers +46 while you wait for Sportsline to update because why would they have live gamecasts of garbage like that?

The rules of this pool are relatively simple: Select 10 sides from the list of lined games sent out each week, with your most confident selection getting 10 possible points if it covers, and the least confident pick getting 1 point. Pushes get half the points a win would, and losses get nothing.

There are currently 11 paid entrants in this pool, so at $300 an entry, the prize pool is $3,300, which will be distributed thusly:

1st: $2,200
2nd: $900
3rd: This wonderful helmet or one from the team of your choice.
Last: This wonderful mini-helmet or one from the team of your choice.

This is an approximation, because some helmets are cheaper than others. Shockingly, the Duke ones are on the cheaper end of the scale. Who knew?

Additional entrants are more than welcome, with any new money added solely to 1st and 2nd places.

Here is the link to the Excel file where you will fill your name in that you want to use for the whole contest, as well as your 10 picks. I will also be e-mailing everyone who signed up this file, in case you can't use Google Docs. If you need a non-Microsoft version, let me know, but I mean, really?

Email your picks to cvillecollegepool@gmail.com , and use "Picks" in the title. That's also the email to contact if you're interested in joining this prestigious pool or have any questions. The deadline to join is kickoff of the first game, and all money must be received by then.

Best of luck!

EDIT 1: Due to popular demand, I will be posting the lines here as well. Feel free to just email your picks in text format with 10-1 next to them. 10 being your most confident pick, 1 being your least.

Lines after the jump

Great Moments in C.H.A.D., Vol. 1

The Arizona Cardinals were easily the most popular pick of X3, selected by 15 of C.H.A.D.'s 32 entrants. Late in the second quarter, things were already not going very well, with the Cardinals trailing the Chargers 7-0. But it was about to get a lot worse:

With 36 seconds left in the first half, the Chargers were two yards out of the endzone and ran it up the gut with Ryan Mathews. The Cardinals were stout and he lost the ball as soon as he crashed into the line (Cardinals Good Thing No. 1). The ball bounced toward the sideline and it was quickly picked up by Cardinals safety Rashad Johnson (Cardinals Good Thing No. 2).

Then Johnson lateraled the ball to teammate Sam Acho (Cardinals Big Fuck-Up). With 30 seconds left. Inside his own seven-yard line. Acho lost the ball and the Chargers snatched it out of mid air and took it into the endzone (Chargers Good Thing No. 1).

You can see the full video here (very much worth watching). San Diego ended up winning 24-7, growing #teamREBUY by a yet to be determined number of members.

C.H.A.D. X3 Update

After three weeks, we're down to three entries which haven't lost yet: @jbxx21, @cfargis, and @wackabrew. So congrats to them for successfully navigating through the preseason; they now get to sit out next week.

There's one more strikeless entry (@Ari_bets), which does have to make a pick next week because he bought back in after losing the first two weeks. Eighteen entries have one strike, which leaves 10 entries that received their second (or third!) strike this weekend.

The current prize pool is $1735. The value of a zero-strike entry increased from $76 to $114; a one-strike entry is currently worth $71.

A full summary of all X3 picks can be found here.

RE-BUYS: Any of the 18 entries which have a strike will now be allowed to buy that strike back, for the price of $44. That strike sticks around for purposes of the (third) tiebreaker, but other than that you're back to having a clean entry. The entries which were already knocked out can either buy one strike back (for $71), or both (for $114). Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

LATE BUY-INS: C.H.A.D. remains open for new registration until the regular season starts. Given the fair value of a zero strike entry plus the 10% premium for late registration, buying into C.H.A.D. this week will cost $126. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in getting involved.

X4 PICKS: The pick deadline this week is Thursday at 7:00pm eastern. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. The default pick for X4 is Green Bay.

C.H.A.D. X3 Pick Summary

Picks for each entry can be found here. No new entries this week, but two re-buys: @Ari_bets bought two strikes back, and @Kunk7 bought one. That brings the total prize pool up to $1,735.

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week:

@cajuncooks "I'm in a preseason survivor pool and I don't know who to pick and my son was shot last night but I don't know I like the Cards"
— thickslicing (@thickslicing) August 21, 2013

CHAD Tweet of the Week:

2 things 1. I just landed in Cleveland on way to SF 2. Browns have sharps attention RT @Lay110Junkie: break down Mia at Cle. i like Cle here
— chad millman (@chadmillman) August 20, 2013

 Chad Tweet of the Week:

#CHAD RT @mattufford: Watch out, Chad! RT @pourmecoffee: A map of the 22 countries Britain has not yet invaded pic.twitter.com/9a6Yl8jt8q
— Kunk (@Kunk7) August 19, 2013

Checking In On C.H.A.D. (X2)

Bumper sticker winners (Pt. 1): @kunk7 (TEN, STL), @ari_bets (TB, STL).

Square picks both weeks (CLE, CHI), so 2-0, obviously: @blakezurbuchen, @calebseeley, @danhodes, @itsasham, @jimsebow, @jppyramid.

Barely made the pick deadline in X1 + Picked an underdog in X2 = Zero strikes: @degenchat (CLE, IND).

Entrants who have made it to 2-0 without taking the most popular team in either X1 or X2: None.

Hasn't tweeted in awhile, missed the X2 deadline, and the default pick lost by 30. Is hopefully alive: @uug9 (CLE, DEN).

Doesn't really care that much yet because he's just going to keep re-buying until the regular season starts: @vegaswatch (IND, ARI).

Dark horse: @wackabrew (CLE, ARI).

C.H.A.D. X2 Update

After two weeks, we have 14 entries with zero strikes, and 16 entries with one strike. Which leaves two entries with two strikes; that would be @Kunk7 and @Ari_bets.

The current prize pool is $1620. The value of a zero-strike entry increased from $63 to $76; a one-strike entry is currently worth $34.

A full summary of all X2 picks can be found here.

RE-BUYS: Any of the 16 entries which have a strike will now be allowed to buy that strike back, for the price of $42. That strike sticks around for purposes of the (third) tiebreaker, but other than that you're back to having a clean entry. Also, the two entries which were already knocked out can buy either one strike back (for $34), or both (for $76). Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

LATE BUY-INS: C.H.A.D. remains open for new registration until the regular season starts. Given the fair value of a zero strike entry plus the 10% premium for late registration, buying into C.H.A.D. this week will cost $84. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in getting involved.

X3 PICKS: The pick deadline this week is once again on Thursday at 7:30pm eastern, as there is one game which kicks off at that time. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. The default pick for X3 is New England.

C.H.A.D. Bumper Sticker Series, Pt. 1

C.H.A.D. X2 Pick Summary

 

Picks for each entry can be found here. We only had one new entry this week; @TheRealSlu was randomly assigned the Browns as the team he's already "used".

C.H.A.D. Tweet of the Week:

@thickslicing @am19psu @cajuncooks i'm just gonna take a team and hope it's not popular. Winning is almost secondary at this point.
— Kunk (@Kunk7) August 14, 2013

C.H.A.D. X1 Update

After one week, we have 21 entries with zero strikes, and 10 entries with one strike. The current prize pool is $1550. The value of a zero-strike entry increased from $50 to $63; a one-strike entry is currently worth $22.

A full summary of all X1 picks can be found here.

RE-BUYS: Nobody is out yet, but that doesn't mean there's nothing to re-buy. Any of the 10 entries which have a strike will now be allowed to buy that strike back, for the price of $41. That strike sticks around for purposes of the (third) tiebreaker, but other than that you're back to having a clean entry. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in going this route.

LATE BUY-INS: C.H.A.D. remains open for new registration until the regular season starts. Given the fair value of a zero strike entry plus the 10% premium for late registration, buying into C.H.A.D. this week will cost $70. Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com if you're interested in getting involved.

X2 PICKS: The pick deadline this week is once again on Thursday at 7:30pm eastern, as there are three games which kick off at that time. A reminder, you can submit one "backup" pick whenever you want, and then a final pick closer to the deadline. No need to specify, as the order of the emails is all that matters. Please remember to include "pick" or "picks" in the subject of the email to ensure none of C.H.A.D.'s administrators see your pick prior to the deadline. The default pick for X2 is, once again, Denver.

Preseason Re-Buys and Late Registration

C.H.A.D. will still be allowing initial registration and re-buys until the regular season starts, but the logistics of doing so are going to be slightly more complicated than C.H.A.D.'s administrators had initially realized.

Since you get one strike in the preseason, after this weekend some entries will be worth more than others, and a new entry (with zero strikes) will be worth more than an average entry (with either one or zero strikes).

Enter, math.

I'm giving everyone a 62% chance of advancing through each week of preseason. So after this weekend, entries with one strike will have a 23.8% chance of advancing through the preseason, while entries with zero strikes will be at 67.7%. Depending on what happens the rest of the weekend, that puts the value of a zero strike entry between $57.17 and $72.82 and the value of a one strike entry between $20.14 and $25.65.

I see no issue with with giving people the option of buying in with either zero or one strike, although will listen to ideas/concerns. Obviously the 10% premium for late registration (but not re-buys) will still apply.

C.H.A.D. X1 Pick Summary

lol.

We begin with 31 participants. Picks for each entry can be found here.

C.H.A.D. Introduction and Rules

$50 to enter, 100% of entry fees will go into prize pool.

Games are picked straight up, no spreads, ties are losses.

Pool starts with this week's preseason games (8/8-8/11). For the four preseason weeks, picks will be due prior to kickoff of the first game of the week. During the regular season, the deadline will be noon eastern on Sunday.

You are allowed one strike in the preseason, but first loss in the regular season and you're out. So, basically you just need to survive the preseason at 3-1 (or better), and then its a "normal" survivor pool. If you start out 3-0 in the preseason, no need to make a fourth pick and burn a team, you'll just automatically advance to the regular season (Note: This only applies to going 3-0, and not getting to the final preseason week with zero strikes in another fashion).

Each team can only be taken once, no exceptions.

RE-BUYS: One entry per person, but re-buys are allowed up until the start of the regular season. The cost of a re-buy will depend on how many weeks are left in preseason, how many entries are left, how many strikes those entries have, and the total prize pool. Entrants will be able to go from two to zero strikes, two strikes to one, or one strike to zero. Re-buy entries will still not be able to use the teams used on the entry which was already eliminated. You can re-buy as many times as you want (while still never having more than one live entry at a time) until the regular season begins.

LATE BUY-INS: Initial registration for C.H.A.D. is open until noon on the first Sunday of the regular season. However, the entry fee will increase each week, and there will be an additional 10% premium for late buy-ins; the cost to register for C.H.A.D. will be calculated each week at fair value of a zero-strike entry plus 10%. Additionally, for each week that's already passed prior to registration, that entry will be randomly assigned a team which they won't be able to pick at any point throughout the contest.

Pool is winner-take-all.

TIEBREAKERS: The first tiebreaker will be which week (not date) you initially registered for C.H.A.D. The second tiebreaker will be which week (not date) that particular entry began its journey through C.H.A.D. The third tiebreaker will be how many strikes you had in preseason (including strikes you may have bought back). The fourth tiebreaker will be the point differential of your entry's picks throughout the contest.

Please contact cvillehatersanddegens AT gmail DOT com (include your Twitter handle in the email) for details on payment and such. That is also the email everybody will use to submit their picks each week.

PICK SUBMISSION: You can send up to two pick submission emails this week, with the second one always overriding the first. This way, you can submit a "backup" pick earlier in the week, in case you forget or whatever. Any pick after the second email will be ignored, and likely mocked.

When submitting picks, please include either "pick" or "picks" in the subject of your email, so it will be filtered correctly and not seen by anybody else until after the deadline. Submit your selection without "pick" or "picks" in the subject at your own risk.

If you fail to submit a pick by the deadline during preseason, you'll be assigned a default pick (the default pick for the first week is Denver). The second time you fail to submit a pick, you'll just be given a loss. If you miss the deadline during the regular season, you're eliminated from the contest.

POOL ADMIN FEES: There are no fees because I'm not a fucking asshole. I will also not be soliciting/expecting/accepting tips, because, well, same deal. Actually there was already a $5 tip, which goes straight into the pot. However, a TBD amount of money will come out of the winner's cut to pay for bumper stickers and a huge fucking check which will be given to the winner at the post-C.H.A.D. dinner/reception/ceremony/bar crawl (all details TBD due to it being a thing I just made up).